Global Air Cargo Demand Surged 8.3% in November 2023

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a substantial rise in global air cargo demand, reaching an 8.3% increase in November 2023 compared to the previous year. This growth is the most significant yearly increase witnessed in nearly two years and signifies the fourth consecutive month of rising demand. The growth in international operations was slightly lower at 8.1%.

The overall capacity in the air cargo sector also saw an increase, with available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs) rising by 13.7% in comparison to November 2022. The increase in belly capacity, a term referring to cargo carried in the hold of passenger aircraft, has been a significant factor in this growth. This trend indicates a recovery in international passenger markets post-COVID-19. However, when compared to pre-COVID levels (November 2019), the demand is still down by 2.5%, while the capacity has grown by 4.1%.

A deeper look into the factors influencing this growth reveals several key indicators:

• Manufacturing output and new export order Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), both crucial indicators of global air cargo demand, showed small positive movements in November. They hovered just below the 50-mark, suggesting a deceleration in the economic slowdown.

• Global cross-border trade experienced growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous declining trend.

• Major advanced economies reported a softening in inflation in November. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) centered around 3% year-on-year for the United States, Japan, and the EU. China, in contrast, exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second consecutive month.

• Air cargo yields, inclusive of surcharges, continued a significant upward trend, increasing by 8.9% since October. This increase aligns with improving air cargo load factors over recent months and is partly attributed to booming e-commerce deliveries, especially from China to Western markets.

IATA's Director General, Willie Walsh, remarked on this growth, noting the encouraging signs for air cargo at the year-end despite significant economic concerns throughout 2023.

Regional performance varied across the globe:

• The Asia-Pacific region led the growth with a 13.8% increase in air cargo volumes, supported by a 29.6% increase in capacity, reflecting the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and the addition of belly capacity.

• North American carriers experienced the weakest growth at 1.8%, though this was an improvement over October's contraction. Capacity in this region grew by 4.0%.

• European carriers saw a 6.7% increase in cargo volumes and a 6.5% increase in capacity, indicating stronger performance than in the previous month.

• Middle Eastern carriers showed the strongest performance, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase in cargo volumes and a 15.4% increase in capacity.

• Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2% increase in cargo volumes, with capacity rising by 7.7%.

• African airlines reported a 3.9% increase in air cargo volumes, slightly higher than October's growth, with a 14.0% increase in capacity.